Forecast

Forecast

 

 

 

 

Variance

Variance

 

COVID

 

 

Month 5

Month 7

Movement

Movement

 

Service

£'000

£'000

£'000

£'000

Explanation of Main Movements

Director of Families, Children & Learning

(5)

(1)

4

0

 

Health, SEN & Disability Services

2,037

1,966

(71)

0

Small reduction in overspend against Adults LD community care budget but increases in overspends on children’s disability services

Education & Skills

1,211

1,014

(197)

83

Mainly due to Grant Funding on Home to School Transport and Council Nurseries.

Children's Safeguarding & Care

(1,442)

(1,616)

(174)

23

Due to lower than expected increases in the costs of children in care and ongoing vacancies.

Quality Assurance & Performance

(12)

4

16

0

Minor Variances.

Further Financial Recovery Measures

(40)

0

40

0

 

Total Families, Children & Learning

1,749

1,367

(382)

106

 

Adult Social Care

5,806

3,443

(2,363)

(3,202)

Due to additional NHS England funding

S75 Sussex Partnership Foundation Trust (SPFT)

366

313

(53)

(472)

Due to additional NHS England funding

Integrated Commissioning

4,588

4,748

160

9

Minor Variances.

Public Health

0

0

0

28

Minor Variances.

Total Health & Adult Social Care

10,760

8,504

(2,256)

(3,637)

 

Transport

4,675

4,588

(87)

61

Minor variances.

City Environmental Management

166

700

534

534

This is substantially a revision of a forecast in the government's Sale, Fees & Charges grant for income losses related to waste disposal (£0.500m). This income and spend is managed through the Waste PFI reserve and any decision on revenue impact will be made at the year-end (as normal).

City Development & Regeneration

274

36

(238)

(238)

This movement is higher forecasts for underspends on services/supplies (lockdown related) and higher forecasts for staffing underspends due to delays in recruiting to several posts within Sustainability driven by COVID-19 uncertainty on recruitment.

Culture, Tourism & Sport

2,482

1,671

(811)

495

The substantial improvement in the forecast is due to a range of factors including 1) confirmed HMRC job retention income (the furlough scheme) of  approximately £0.300m which was not included in previous forecast; 2) an increased forecast for rental income for Seafront Properties due to a relatively good summer season helped by government support for shops/businesses; 3) an increase in ticket sales for Volks Railway over the summer season; 4) a reduced forecast for spending on casual staff and premises costs. The increase in the forecast impact of COVID-19 is the result of the income generating Brighton Centre now being forecast as closed for until the end of March 2021.

Property

1,677

1,250

(427)

(193)

The improved forecast is the result of a range of forecast movements across Property Services including forecasts for lower utilities costs and higher rental income.

Total Economy, Environment & Culture

9,274

8,245

(1,029)

659

 

Housing General Fund

8,494

7,988

(506)

(448)

Financial recovery measure for Temporary Accommodation (TA) Housing Benefit (HB) income recovery (£0.569m), release of reserves (£0.153m), delay to new services (£0.125m) all now reflected in the forecast. Improvements to income for TA (£0.287m), reduced void losses (£0.074m), offset by increases in spot purchase costs £0.102m and an increase in the forecast for rough sleeper accommodation costs £0.600m.

Libraries

178

143

(35)

(35)

Recovery measures incorporated into the forecast.

Communities, Equalities & Third Sector

185

170

(15)

0

Recovery measures incorporated into the forecast.

Safer Communities

64

0

(64)

(10)

Staffing underspend.

Further Financial Recovery Measures

(4,193)

(3,150)

1,043

965

Further financial recovery measures reflected in service forecast lines (£0.893m). Improvements in TA forecast means more Flexible Homelessness Support Grant (FHSG) is available for COVID-19 (£0.078m). Reduction in HB for rough sleepers forecast (£0.150m).

Total Housing, Neighbourhoods & Communities

4,728

5,151

423

472

 

Finance (Mobo)

(66)

(66)

0

0

 

HR & Organisational Development (Mobo)

101

119

18

0

Increasing income pressures.

IT&D (Mobo)

0

0

0

0

 

Procurement (Mobo

0

0

0

0

 

Business Operations (Mobo)

97

97

0

0

 

Revenues & Benefits (Mobo)

330

376

46

0

Expected further reduction in court costs income.

Housing Benefit Subsidy

147

552

405

0

£0.295m worsening in net position on collection of overpayments, £0.095m worsening in pressure on benefit type for vulnerable tenants not fully subsidised and £0.015m worsening in collection of former Council Tax Benefit overpayments.

Contribution to Orbis

230

186

(44)

0

Improving forecast position for Orbis Partnership, mainly vacancies.

Total Finance & Resources

839

1,264

425

0

 

Corporate Policy

0

0

0

0

 

Legal Services

(50)

(50)

0

0

 

Democratic & Civic Office Services

0

0

0

0

 

Life Events

200

201

1

0

Minor Variances.

Performance, Improvement & Programmes

(6)

(6)

0

0

 

Communications

30

20

(10)

0

Minor variances.

Total Strategy, Governance & Law

174

165

(9)

0

 

Bulk Insurance Premia

0

0

0

0

 

Capital Financing Costs

(450)

(753)

(303)

0

Increased investment balances and increased assumptions of average investment rate.

Levies & Precepts

0

0

0

0

 

Unallocated Contingency & Risk Provisions

(217)

(217)

0

0

 

Unringfenced Grants

(21,930)

(26,712)

(4,782)

(4,782)

Tranche 4 of COVID-19 funding.

Other Corporate Items

2,926

3,016

90

90

Laptops purchased for homeworking.

Total Corporately-held Budgets

(19,671)

(24,666)

(4,995)

(4,692)

 

Total General Fund

7,853

30

(7,823)

(7,092)